Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1761 · FSD → MSP
departs 8:31 AM CT · arrives 9:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Mon 10/12 7%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
FSD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.