Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1814
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 1814 · SLC → SNA
departs 10:56 AM MT · arrives 11:54 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13 24%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.