Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1814
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
DL 1814 · SLC → SNA
departs 10:57 AM MT · arrives 11:56 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Mon 10/12 41%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
SLC is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.67 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.