Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2254
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2254 · BIL → MSP
departs 6:02 AM MT · arrives 9:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12 37%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 6%
Fri 10/16 6%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave BIL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BIL
↑
Other factors
↓
6am departures from BIL are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BIL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.