Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2392
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2392 · JAX → MSP
departs 3:11 PM ET · arrives 5:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from JAX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.