Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2500 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

DL 2500 · JFK → MIA

departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2500 · JFK → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?