Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
DL 2638 · MIA → DTW
departs 8:01 AM ET · arrives 10:58 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 10/12 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.