Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2822 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

DL 2822 · DTW → STL

departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 5:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2822 · DTW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?