Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2822
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 2822 · DTW → STL
departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 5:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 21%
Sun 10/18 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.12 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.