Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2974 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

DL 2974 · MSP → LAX

departs 3:01 PM CT · arrives 4:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2974 · MSP → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?