Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 850 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

DL 850 · DCA → ATL

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 850 · DCA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?