Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 1166 · PHL → SJU
departs 12:29 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM AT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 10/13 30%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 41%
Fri 10/16 47%
Sat 10/17 36%
Sun 10/18 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.