Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 1166 · PHL → SJU
departs 11:31 AM ET · arrives 3:30 PM AT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 10/13 30%
Wed 10/14 31%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 47%
Sat 10/17 36%
Sun 10/18 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.