Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1203
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 1203 · PHL → MIA
departs 4:40 PM ET · arrives 7:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Tue 10/13 27%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 50%
Fri 10/16 51%
Sat 10/17 43%
Sun 10/18 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
4pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.