Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 2206 · FLL → ORD
departs 12:45 PM ET · arrives 3:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 41%
Fri 10/16 35%
Sat 10/17 25%
Sun 10/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from FLL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.