Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 2206 · FLL → ORD
departs 1:03 PM ET · arrives 3:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 35%
Sat 10/17 25%
Sun 10/18 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.