Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2440
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 2440 · DEN → RDU
departs 11:42 AM MT · arrives 5:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/14
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.733333 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.733333 mi Precip 0.19 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.