Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 690
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 690 · DEN → DCA
departs 4:28 PM MT · arrives 9:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 31%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.43 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.