Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3417 · SAV → MIA
departs 6:04 AM ET · arrives 7:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAV is prone to delays
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SAV (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.