Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3430 · DCA → MEM
departs 8:25 AM ET · arrives 9:57 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.