Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3472 · MIA → CVG
departs 8:36 AM ET · arrives 11:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 18%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at CVG that day
↑
Other factors
↑
MIA is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.