Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3513
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3513 · DFW → FSM
departs 8:15 AM CT · arrives 9:28 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12 8%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at FSM that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at DFW that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSM (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.