Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3552
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3552 · ORD → MSP
departs 8:19 AM CT · arrives 9:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.17 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.