Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3554
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3554 · CVG → MIA
departs 1:13 PM ET · arrives 3:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 27%
Fri 10/16 29%
Sat 10/17 25%
Sun 10/18 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.19 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.