Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3721
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3721 · ATW → ORD
departs 5:20 AM CT · arrives 6:28 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.