Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3721
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3721 · ATW → ORD
departs 5:20 AM CT · arrives 6:32 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at ATW that day
Weather at each end
ATW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.