Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3915
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3915 · CAK → ORD
departs 6:11 AM ET · arrives 6:37 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave CAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CAK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.