Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3915
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3915 · CAK → ORD
departs 6:11 AM ET · arrives 6:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave CAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from CAK are usually not late
Weather at each end
CAK (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,133 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.