Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3933
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3933 · XNA → ORD
departs 7:45 AM CT · arrives 9:37 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 32%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.70 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.