Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3933
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
MQ 3933 · XNA → ORD
departs 7:45 AM CT · arrives 9:42 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/14 41%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 27%
Mon 10/19 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±4 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from XNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,433 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.34 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.77 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.