Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4001
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4001 · MSP → ORD
departs 9:07 AM CT · arrives 10:36 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.