Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4047
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4047 · BOS → DCA
departs 9:12 PM ET · arrives 10:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Tue 10/13 50%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 29%
Fri 10/16 39%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.08 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.