Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4067
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4067 · DCA → BGR
departs 1:57 PM ET · arrives 3:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13 25%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 30%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BGR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BGR?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BGR that day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BGR (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.