Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4139
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4139 · SRQ → MIA
departs 7:04 AM ET · arrives 8:13 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 4%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 7%
Sun 10/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SRQ is prone to delays
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from SRQ are usually not late
Weather at each end
SRQ (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.