Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4233
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4233 · ILM → MIA
departs 7:04 AM ET · arrives 9:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ILM is prone to delays
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.