Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4314
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4314 · MIA → ELH
departs 10:22 AM ET · arrives 11:38 AM EDT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Mon 10/12 13%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELH more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at ELH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELH?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
10am departures from MIA are often late
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELH (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.