Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5191 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow

OH 5191 · PHL → YYZ

departs 7:49 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5191 · PHL → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?