Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5221 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5221 · DCA → MSN

departs 9:08 PM ET · arrives 10:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5221 · DCA → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?