Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5240 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5240 · IND → PHL

departs 1:36 PM ET · arrives 3:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IND that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ IND usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.43 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5240 · IND → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?