Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5240 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5240 · IND → PHL

departs 1:36 PM ET · arrives 3:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IND that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ IND usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.07 in

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5240 · IND → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?