Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5254 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5254 · HPN → DCA

departs 3:22 PM ET · arrives 4:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 50% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ HPN is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

HPN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5254 · HPN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?