Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5269 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5269 · DCA → DTW

departs 8:52 PM ET · arrives 10:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5269 · DCA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?