Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5543 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5543 · PHL → XNA

departs 10:28 AM ET · arrives 12:31 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5543 · PHL → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?