Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3783 · MSP → IAD
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 6:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.