Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3837 · SBN → DTW
departs 8:20 AM ET · arrives 9:28 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 11%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SBN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DTW that day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.26 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.