Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3844
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3844 · OKC → MSP
departs 7:20 AM CT · arrives 9:29 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Mon 10/12 5%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 7%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.02 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.