Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3847 · DTW → BUF
departs 2:02 PM ET · arrives 3:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 10/12 20%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.