Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3853 · SLC → SBA
departs 3:00 PM MT · arrives 4:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 8%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SBA is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from SLC are often late
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.