Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3924
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3924 · MSP → XNA
departs 9:10 AM CT · arrives 11:07 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Mon 10/12 14%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.