Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3950
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3950 · MSP → AUS
departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 9:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.